Promax » Forecasting (Sales Volume Planning) & Baseline Planning http://www.promaxtpo.com Thu, 02 Feb 2012 05:34:53 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Will Promax PX allow the changing of the number of consumer units within a case? At times the number of consumer units change within a case that affects the overall demand of the product. The system must be able to re-adjust the demand when there are changes to consumer units within the packaging. http://www.promaxtpo.com/will-promax-px-allow-the-changing-of-the-number-of-consumer-units-within-a-case-at-times-the-number-of-consumer-units-change-within-a-case-that-affects-the-overall-demand-of-the-product-the-system-m/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/will-promax-px-allow-the-changing-of-the-number-of-consumer-units-within-a-case-at-times-the-number-of-consumer-units-change-within-a-case-that-affects-the-overall-demand-of-the-product-the-system-m/#comments Sat, 10 Oct 2009 05:15:53 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=558

Promax PX holds the forecast by Consumer unit (SKU) and uses the conversion factor (Base Units Per Saleable) to provide a forecast by Cases. Promax PX allows changes to be easily made to the Product & Account attributes which includes changes to the Base Units Per Saleable. If the volume impact needs to adjusted Promax PX has the ability to scale both the Baseline & Promotional Uplifts Independently.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/will-promax-px-allow-the-changing-of-the-number-of-consumer-units-within-a-case-at-times-the-number-of-consumer-units-change-within-a-case-that-affects-the-overall-demand-of-the-product-the-system-m/feed/ 0 I need to forecast for a minimum 21 period window, can Promax do this? http://www.promaxtpo.com/i-need-to-forecast-for-a-minimum-21-period-window-can-promax-do-this/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/i-need-to-forecast-for-a-minimum-21-period-window-can-promax-do-this/#comments Wed, 22 Jul 2009 05:05:54 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=503 Promax PX allows for forecasting in to the future as far as the client requires.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/i-need-to-forecast-for-a-minimum-21-period-window-can-promax-do-this/feed/ 0 The Mirage of Promotional Lift http://www.promaxtpo.com/the-mirage-of-promotional-lift/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/the-mirage-of-promotional-lift/#comments Tue, 23 Jun 2009 04:50:48 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=1006 The availability of retail scan data means that suppliers can now evaluate their promotions in terms of the additional sales that were sold through to the consumer. In this paper we will look at the issues surrounding this, and some of the problems.

Download the full The Mirage of Promotional Lift Case Study PDF

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/the-mirage-of-promotional-lift/feed/ 0 Can Promax PX support forecasting for long-term planning horizon and also be able to allow different users access to different time zones based on the users’ area of responsibility? This is to give responsibility of forecast ownership to different functional groups within the business. http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-support-forecasting-for-long-term-planning-horizon-and-also-be-able-to-allow-different-users-access-to-different-time-zones-based-on-the-users%e2%80%99-area-of-responsibility-this-is-to/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-support-forecasting-for-long-term-planning-horizon-and-also-be-able-to-allow-different-users-access-to-different-time-zones-based-on-the-users%e2%80%99-area-of-responsibility-this-is-to/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:58 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=640

Example below:

  • Minimum term looking forward 48 Months
  • 0 – 12 Months – Sales
  • 13 – 36 Months – Marketing
  • 36+ Months – Statistical

Promax PX allows the user to define the forecat horizon. The promotional forecast will exist up until the point where the Sales team has entered promotions into the system. If no promotions exist within Promax PX after a certain date, the forecast will simply be a Trend and Seasonality adjusted baseline with any additional adjustment made by Marketing.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-support-forecasting-for-long-term-planning-horizon-and-also-be-able-to-allow-different-users-access-to-different-time-zones-based-on-the-users%e2%80%99-area-of-responsibility-this-is-to/feed/ 0 Can Promax PX detect and deal with any outliers identified in sales and the forecast by pre-defined parameter settings? Examples of parameters include but are not limited to: highlighting ‘abnormal’ sales versus, forecast that lies outside of defined confidence bands or ranges, forecasts that drop out or are removed. http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-detect-and-deal-with-any-outliers-identified-in-sales-and-the-forecast-by-pre-defined-parameter-settings-examples-of-parameters-include-but-are-not-limited-to-highlighting-%e2%80%98abn/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-detect-and-deal-with-any-outliers-identified-in-sales-and-the-forecast-by-pre-defined-parameter-settings-examples-of-parameters-include-but-are-not-limited-to-highlighting-%e2%80%98abn/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:21 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=638

Promax PX is configured to automatically track the deviation of the Forecast Model VS Actuals Data that is loaded into the system. The Actuals data can be drawn from a variety of sources (Scan, Ex-Factory, Warehouse Withdrawal etc.). When the Actuals interface is run there is a background task that tracks the Actuals information against what has been predicted by the model.

By default, Promax PX will allow 4 standard deviations away from the standard error of the model before it highlights the model as needing to be recalculated. The Standard Error Multiplier (number of standard deviations) can be defined by the user if desired.

Promax PX stores both the Statistically Calculated Forecast and the User Entered Values. Promax AnalytX can be used to actively alert / report on a specified deviation away from that value.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/can-promax-px-detect-and-deal-with-any-outliers-identified-in-sales-and-the-forecast-by-pre-defined-parameter-settings-examples-of-parameters-include-but-are-not-limited-to-highlighting-%e2%80%98abn/feed/ 0 Does Promax PX have the ability to determine forecast accuracy by analysing the different forecast methods used and suggest switching forecast calculation method to a more suitable calculation? Metrics to be available at multiple time fences to judge accuracy by area of responsibility. http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-determine-forecast-accuracy-by-analysing-the-different-forecast-methods-used-and-suggest-switching-forecast-calculation-method-to-a-more-suitable-calculation-metric/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-determine-forecast-accuracy-by-analysing-the-different-forecast-methods-used-and-suggest-switching-forecast-calculation-method-to-a-more-suitable-calculation-metric/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:10 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=636

Promax PX uses a tournament methodology to select the model of best fit when selecting the ideal statisitical model for an account and SKU combination. Promax PX will not automatically re-calculate the model or change the models coefficient configuration. This needs to be done by a user and can be run as a batch process.

Promax PX is configured to automatically track the deviation of the Forecast Model VS Actuals Data that is loaded into the system. The Actuals data can be drawn from a variety of sources (Scan, Ex-Factory, Warehouse Withdrawal etc.). When the Actuals interface is run there is a background task tracks the Actuals information against what has been predicted by the model.

By default, Promax PX will allow 4 standard deviations away from the standard error of the model before it highlights the model as needing to be recalculated. The Standard Error Multiplier (number of standard deviations) can be defined by the user if desired.

Promax PX is currently only configured to look at the deviation of Standard Error VS Actuals however other calculations could be added.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-determine-forecast-accuracy-by-analysing-the-different-forecast-methods-used-and-suggest-switching-forecast-calculation-method-to-a-more-suitable-calculation-metric/feed/ 0 Does Promax PX have the ability to automatically search the most indicated statistical algorithm and related parameters to match a given historical series of data and create a warning if the current forecast is outside a range that the statistical forecast is suggesting? http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-automatically-search-the-most-indicated-statistical-algorithm-and-related-parameters-to-match-a-given-historical-series-of-data-and-create-a-warning-if-the-current-f/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-automatically-search-the-most-indicated-statistical-algorithm-and-related-parameters-to-match-a-given-historical-series-of-data-and-create-a-warning-if-the-current-f/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:59:49 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=634

Promax PX is configured to automatically track the deviation of the forecast model vs actual data that is loaded into the system. The actual data can be drawn from a variety of sources (Scan, Ex-Factory, Warehouse Withdrawal etc.). When the history interface is run there is a background task that tracks the actual value against what has been predicted by the model.

By default, Promax PX will allow 4 standard deviations away from the standard error of the model before it highlights the model as needing to be recalculated. The Standard Error Multiplier (number of standard deviations) can be defined by the user if desired.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-automatically-search-the-most-indicated-statistical-algorithm-and-related-parameters-to-match-a-given-historical-series-of-data-and-create-a-warning-if-the-current-f/feed/ 0 Does Promax PX have the ability to highlight to the user that changes made to a plan are outside of predefined tolerances to trap abnormal forecast entries that have the potential of being incorrect? http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-highlight-to-the-user-that-changes-made-to-a-plan-are-outside-of-predefined-tolerances-to-trap-abnormal-forecast-entries-that-have-the-potential-of-being-incorrect/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-highlight-to-the-user-that-changes-made-to-a-plan-are-outside-of-predefined-tolerances-to-trap-abnormal-forecast-entries-that-have-the-potential-of-being-incorrect/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:59:25 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=632

Promax PX stores both the statistically calculated forecast and the user entered values. Promax AnalytX can be used to actively alert / report on a specified deviation away from that value.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/does-promax-px-have-the-ability-to-highlight-to-the-user-that-changes-made-to-a-plan-are-outside-of-predefined-tolerances-to-trap-abnormal-forecast-entries-that-have-the-potential-of-being-incorrect/feed/ 0 Is Promax PX able to derive future demand forecasts from past business data using a library of forecasting algorithms? By utilizing a number of forecast methods the system must be able to calculate best fit based on MAD/SAD or user defined parameters. Best fit parameters may be defined differently by group. http://www.promaxtpo.com/is-promax-px-able-to-derive-future-demand-forecasts-from-past-business-data-using-a-library-of-forecasting-algorithms-by-utilizing-a-number-of-forecast-methods-the-system-must-be-able-to-calculate-be/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/is-promax-px-able-to-derive-future-demand-forecasts-from-past-business-data-using-a-library-of-forecasting-algorithms-by-utilizing-a-number-of-forecast-methods-the-system-must-be-able-to-calculate-be/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 05:16:35 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=560

Promax PX uses a library of forecasting techniques that derive statistical forecasts for promotional uplift and baseline sales. The choice of technique is determined by the source of data which can vary from POS Scan data from AC Nielsen or Synovate/Aztec to warehouse withdrawal information or ex-factory sales. Promax PX allows the user to define forecast algorithms and has a library of algorithmic forms on which it employs a tournament system to recommend the best model based on “goodness of fit”. The recommendation can be ranked by a number of measures including Standard Error, Correlation Coefficient or residual.

Promax PX uses non-linear regression as the foundation of the modelling approach and Promax has devised a flexible and specific approach that is tailored to the needs of both the forecaster and the trade promotions planner.

The modelling of scan data includes imbedded technology to filter the historical data into its key elements. The sales pattern is made up of such elements as trend, seasonality, baseline and promotions. These elements are affected by selling price, display, marketing vehicle, advertising and peripheral events like competitor promotions, community calendars (public holidays, Easter, to name some examples. The causal components can in themselves have effect on the baseline or the promotional uplift and the modelling engine needs to be able to distinguish between these.

At Promax we see this as essential, modelling through a tournament method which tests many algorithmic forms to determine the “best” one that describes the pattern of sales. With this approach each product/account combination could have a different model. It gives the user the ability to use models developed by others like your syndicated data providers (ACNielsen, IRI or Synovate/Aztec) leveraging your previously made analytics investment.

The solution design means that Sales users can eaily select / enter the model peramiters when developing promotional plans – which seamlessly flows into the development of a sales forecast thus truly ensuring a ‘one number’ approach to the business

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/is-promax-px-able-to-derive-future-demand-forecasts-from-past-business-data-using-a-library-of-forecasting-algorithms-by-utilizing-a-number-of-forecast-methods-the-system-must-be-able-to-calculate-be/feed/ 0 With Promax PX are you able to choose from different forecasting units, including sales value, cost value, weight, volume and stock unit when maintain forecasts? http://www.promaxtpo.com/with-promax-px-are-you-able-to-choose-from-different-forecasting-units-including-sales-value-cost-value-weight-volume-and-stock-unit-when-maintain-forecasts/ http://www.promaxtpo.com/with-promax-px-are-you-able-to-choose-from-different-forecasting-units-including-sales-value-cost-value-weight-volume-and-stock-unit-when-maintain-forecasts/#comments Mon, 22 Jun 2009 05:15:32 +0000 admin http://www.promaxtpo.com/?p=556

Promax PX is able to hold Forecasts and Sales history at both the Cases and Units as a base level. Promax PX holds information on:

  • Units Per Case
  • Standard Cost / COGS
  • List Price
  • Case Weight / Litre (Gross & Net)

Using this information combined with the cost of trade spend related activity Promax PX is able to give both a Gross Sales & Net Sales Forecast. The Promax PX database holds both the forecast and actual sales information allowing a closing a position (Outlook) for the financial period to be calculated. Promax AnalytX BI (OLAP Data Cube) allows any number of calculations to be performed using these measures providing limitless configurability and customisation for review & forecast reporting.

]]> http://www.promaxtpo.com/with-promax-px-are-you-able-to-choose-from-different-forecasting-units-including-sales-value-cost-value-weight-volume-and-stock-unit-when-maintain-forecasts/feed/ 0